Investigating carbon emission abatement long-term plan with the aim of energy system modeling; case study of Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran


Increasing electric vehicles usage, as a promising solution for environmental issues, might have unexpected implications, since it entails some changes in different sectors and scales in energy system. In this respect, this research aims at investigating the long-term impacts of electric vehicles deployment on Iran's energy system. Accordingly, Iran's energy system was analyzed by LEAP model in demand, supply, and transmission sides for all fuels and two different scenarios. Existing policies with limited optimistic assumptions was investigated as "reference" scenario. Alternatively, the other scenario, "electric cars" scenario, is gradually for substitution of electric vehicles for 15% gasoline cars until 2030 and renewable energy sources have more contribution in electricity production. Finally, carbon dioxide emission was predicted and compared in both scenarios for 25 years later. Results indicate that with "electric cars" scenario at 2030, Iran would have by 9.2 % and 1.9% less Carbon Dioxide emissions in comparison to the "reference" scenario in the transportation sector and total system, respectively.


[1] Troy S., Schreiber A., Zapp P., Life Cycle Assessment of Membrane-Based Carbon Capture and Storage, Springer,  Clean Technology Environmental Policy (2016)  DOI 10.1007/s10098-016-1208-x. 
[2] IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Mitigation of Climate Change (Working Group III Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014).
[3] Magazzino C., A Panel VAR Approach of the Relationship Among Economic Growth,CO2 Emissions, and Energy Use in the ASEAN-6 Countries, International Journal of Energy Economic Policy (2014) 4:546–53
[4] Ghanadan R. Koomey G. J., Using Energy Scenarios to Explore Alternative Energy Pathways in California, Energy Policy (2005) 33: 1117-1142.
[5] Monazzam M. R., Yunesian M., Transport management in Iran: Traffic Safety and Cleaner Cars,  The Journal of Environmental Engineering and Management (2009) 19(6): 317-325.
[6] Gholizadeh M. H, Farajzadeh M., Darand M., The Connection between Tehran's Pollution and Mortality, Hakim Research Magazine (2009)12: 269-272.
[7] Alipour S., Karbassi A. R., Abbaspour M., Saffarzadeh M., Moharamnejad N., Energy and Environmental Issues in Transport Sector, International Journal of Environmental Research (2011) 5(1):213-224.
[8] Shafie-Pour Motlagh M., Farsiabi M. M., An Environmental & Economic Analysis for Reducing Energy Subsidies, International Journal of Environmental Research (2007) 1(2): 150-162.
[9] Mousavi B., Lopez N.S.A., Biona J.B.M., Chiuc A.S.F., Blesla M., Driving Forces of Iran's CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption: An LMDI Decomposition Approach, Applied Energy 206 (2017): 804–814,
[10] Iran's Office of Electricity and Power Planning, Iran's Annual Energy Report and Statistics for the Year of 2014, Ministry of Power, Iran, Tehran (2016).
[11] Wu Y., Yang Z., Lin B., Liu H., Wang R., Zhou B., Hao J., Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission Impacts of Vehicle Electrification in Three Developed Regions of China, Energy Policy (2012) 48: 537–550.
[12] Ke W., Zhang S., He X., Wu Y., Hao J., Well-to-Wheels Energy Consumption and Emissions of Electric Vehicles: Mid-Term Implications from Real-World Features and Air Pollution Control Progress, Applied Energy (2017) 188: 367–377.
[13] Orsi F., Muratori M., Rocco M., Colombo E., Rizzoni G., A Multi-Dimensional Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Passenger Vehicles in Different Regions: Primary Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Cost, Applied Energy(2016) 169:197–209.
[14] Woo J., Choi H., Ahn J., Well-to-Wheel Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Electric Vehicles Based on Electricity Generation Mix: A Global Perspective, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (2017) 51: 340–350.
[15] Soret A., Guevara M., Baldasano J. M., The Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Air Quality in the Urban Areas of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain), Atmospheric Environment, (2014) 99:51–63.
[16] Li N., Chen J.-P., Tsai I.-C., He Q., Chi S.-Y., Lin Y.-C., Fu T.-M., Potential Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Air Quality in Taiwan, Science of The Total Environment (2016) 566–567:919–928.
[17] Nichols B. G., Kockelman K. M., Reiter M., Air Quality Impacts of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Texas, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment (2015) 34: 208–218.
[18] IEA (International Energy Agency), CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion (2014) <> (accessed 10.04.14).
[19] Ajanovic  A., Haas R., The impact of Energy Policies in Scenarios on GHG Emission Reduction in Passenger Car Mobility in the EU-15, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2016)  
[20] Thiel C., Nijs W., Simoes S., Schmidt J., van Zyl A., Schmid E., The Impact of the EU Car CO2 Regulation on Energy System and the Role of Electro-Mobility to Achieve Transport Decarburisation, Energy Policy (2016) 96: 153-166.
[21] Shabbir R., Ahmad S.S, Monitoring urban Transport Air Pollution and Energy Demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model (2010) Doi:10.1016/
[22] Greene, D., Shuguang J., Policies for Promoting Low-Emission Vehicles and Fuels:Lessons from Recent Analyses, Howard H. Baker Jr. Center for Public Policy, The University of Tennessee (2016).
[23] Ajanovic A., Haas R., Wirl F., Reducing CO2 Emissions of Cars in the EU: Analyzing the Underlying Mechanisms of Standards, Registration Taxes and Fuel Taxes, Energy Efficiency (2015).
[24] Gomez V., Jonathan J., Jochem P., Fichtner W., The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Global Oil Demand and CO2 Emissions , 13th WCTR (2013)  Rio, Brazil.
[25] Sadeghi M., Mirshojaeian Hosseini H., Integrated Energy Planning for Transportation Sector – A Case Study for Iran with Techno-Economic Approach, Energy Policy (2008) 36(2):850–66.
[26] Hashemian S. A., Mansouri N., Morady M.A., Investigating the Impacts of Retrofitted CNG Vehicles on Air Pollutant Emissions in Tehran, International Journal of Environmental Research (2013) 7(3):669-678.
[27] Sadri A., Ardehali M. M., Amirnekooei K., General Procedure for Long-Term Energy-Environmental Planning for Transportation Sector of Developing Countries with Limited Data Based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN, Energy (2014) 77: 831–843.
[28] Sehatpour M.H, Kazemi A., Sehatpour H., Evaluation of Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles in Iran Using a Multicriteria Approach, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2017) 72: 295–310.
[29] Ou X., Zhang X., Zhang Q., Life Cycle GHG of NG-Based Fuel and Electric Vehicle in China, Energies (2013) ISSN 1996-1073,
[30] Cai W. , Wang C., Wang K., Zhang Y., Chen J., Scenario Analysis on CO2 Emissions Reduction Potential in China's Electricity Sector, Energy Policy (2007) 35 (12): 6445-6456.
[31] Mitchell W. J., Borroni-Bird C. E., Burns L.D, Reinventing the Automobile –Personal Urban Mobility for the 21st Century, MIT, Cambridge (2010).
[32] Jochem P., Babrowski S., Fichtner W., Assessing CO2 Emissions of Electric Vehicles in Germany in 2030 Transportation Research Part A (2015) 78: 68-83 
[33] Wu Y. , Zhang L., Can the Development of Electric Vehicles Reduce the Emission of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases in Developing Countries, Transportation Research Part D (2017) 51:129–145.
[34] Zhang L., Feng Y., Chen B., Alternative Scenarios for the Development of a Low-Carbon City: A Case Study of Beijing, China, Energies (2011) 4:2295-2310.
[35] Qudrat-Ullah H., Modelling and Simulation in Service of Energy Policy, The 7th International Conference on Applied Energy - ICAE2015, Energy Procedia (2015) 75: 2819 – 2825.
[36] Dowd J, Newman J. Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Engineering Economic Policy Analysis, Proceeding of IEA International Workshop Technology Reduce Greenh, Gas Emissions: Engineering Economics Analyses of Conserved Energy Carbon (1999).
[37] Worrell E., Ramesohl S., Boyd G., Advances in Energy Forecasting Model Based on Energy Economics, Annual Review of Environmental Resource. (2004) 14(29):55345-81. 
[38] LEAP User Guide, Long range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP), Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston, USA (2016).
[39] McPherson M., Bryan K., Long-Term Scenario Alternatives and Their Implications: LEAP Model Application of Panama's Electricity Sector, Energy Policy (2014) 68: 146-157.
[40] Bose R. K., Srinivasachary V., Policies to Reduce Energy Use and Environmental Emissions in the Transport Sector: A Case of Delhi City, Energy Policy (1997) 25(14-15): 1137-1150.
[41] Kale R. V., Sanjay D. P., Electricity Demand Supply Analysis: Current Status and Future Prospects for Maharashtra, India, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2012) 16(6): 3960-3966.
[42] Dagher L., Ruble I., Modeling Lebanon's Electricity Sector: Alternative Scenarios and Their Implications, Energy (2011) 36 (7): 4315.
[43] Abbaspour M., Karbassi A., Khalaji Asadi M., Moharamnejad N., Khadivi S., Moradi M.A., Energy Demand Model of the Household Sector and Its Application in Developing Metropolitan Cities (Case Study: Tehran), Polish Journal of Environmental Studies (2012) 22(2): 319-329.
[44] Neaimeh M., Hill G.A., Hübner Y. Blythe P.T., Routing Systems to Extend the Driving Range of Electric Vehicles, IET Intelligent Transport Systems (2013) 7:327-336.
[45] Gabriel J., Wellbrock Ph., Buchmann M., Assessment of CO2-Emissions from Electric Vehicles: State of the Scientific Debate, in: Hülsmann M.,  and Fornahl D., (eds.) Evolutionary Paths Towards the Mobility Patterns of the Future, Lecture Notes in Mobility, chapter 14th, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg  (2014) DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-37558-3_3, 
[46] Euronews available in
[47] Zanjani H., A Prediction of Urban and Rural Population by 2040, Journal Iranian Social Developments Studies (2016) 8(3).
[49] IFCO, Annual Report of Transportation Sector, Iranian Fuel Conservation Company a Subsidiary of National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) (2011) [accessed 11.12.2012].
[50] Armstrong J. S., Collopy F., Error Measures for Generalizing about Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons, International Journal of Forecasting (1992) 8:69-80.
[51] Byrne R. F., Beyond Traditional Time-Series: Using Demand Sensing to Improve Forecasts in Volatile Times, The Journal of Business Forecasting (2012) 31:13.
[52] Kim S., Kim H., A New Metric of Absolute Percentage Error for Intermittent Demand Forecasts, International Journal of Forecasting (2016) 32: 669-679.