Forecasting the gasoline consumption in Iran’s transportation sector by ARIMA method

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Energy System Engineering, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, Energy System Engineering, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Iran

4 Department of Energy Engineering and Physics, energy system Engineering, Amirkabir University, Tehran, Iran


Transportation is one of the important bases of the national economy of any country. The development of the transportation sector has been accompanied by economic growth. In developing countries, the development of the transportation sector and the increasing number of vehicles increase energy consumption in this sector. Therefore, the management and energy supply of this sector are two of the main priorities of the governments in these countries. In this research, taking into account the data related to the gross domestic product, the number of gasoline cars produced, the number of passengers within and outside the province, and the price of gasoline, a regression equation was written using the least squares method to determine the effect of these components on consumption. Gasoline should be evaluated. Furthermore, with Iran's gasoline consumption data from 1962 to 2021, we have forecast the gasoline consumption between 2022 and 2031 with the ARIMA method. The research results show that between 2021 and 2022, Iran's gasoline consumption had a downward trend; its amount was -0.45%; and it had an upward trend from 2023 to 2031; it grew by 52.09% between these years.


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